The intergovernmental agreement on the Turkish stream is signed.

Absence of this document slowed down implementation of the project before incident with Su-24. With its signing Russia and Turkey declared intention to construct a gas pipeline in the shortest possible time. Besides, the beginning of construction of the Turkish stream can also significantly facilitate advance of Nord Stream-2.

Nearly two years passed since the moment when it was officially declared cancellation of South Stream and its replacement with the Turkish stream. Cancellation happened for the known reasons — constant delay by the European party of implementation of the project. In addition chances that the project after all will be withdrawn from the norms of the Third power package became more and more illusory. Change of the direction on Turkey became an unexpected course, especially as this step was followed also by partial change of ideology of the project: Gazprom will not build gas transmission infrastructure in the territory of the European Union, having cut down thereby expenses. It was offered to European consumers to solve a problem of delivery. It, of course, did not cancel opportunity to agree. And after all infrastructure question is not idle. If Gazprom and its European partners do not pay for new gas pipelines who will pay?

The irony of the situation was that the EU for many years proved to Gazprom that liberalization of the market of gas which was carried by the Third power package, does well to it, and Gazprom proved that this system does impossible implementation of large gas transmission projects in Europe. And that fact that some projects were removed from under norms of the Third power package confirmed correctness of the Russian side.

It became gradually clear that the Turkish stream can be constructed in the down-sized option. One of four strings of South Stream was initially intended for the market of Turkey which is for today the second-large buyer of the Russian gas. One more thread could provide the market of the Balkan region almost without construction of new capacities. The matter is that now Turkey receives a part of the Russian gas along the southern corridor — through Ukraine and the Balkans. And these capacities can be used in the reverse mode. Besides, in the territory of Russia a half of the gas transmission capacities necessary for supply of gas in South Stream was constructed (first stage). Respectively these capacities are already now ready for pumping of 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas a year on the Turkish stream.
During negotiations with Turkey the double line option became more and more preferable. On the one hand, there were hot discussions of a discount for gas, on the other — signing of necessary in this case intergovernmental agreement was delayed. At first there came political crisis in Turkey — it was necessary to appoint re-elections.

Then Gazprom agreed with the European companies about construction of Nord Stream-2. It removed part of questions concerning the third and fourth strings of the Turkish stream. And in November, 2015 there was a strange and at the same time terrible coincidence. That day when the Turkish side was going to declare new structure of the government, the VKS Su-24M bomber of Russia was brought down. And the relations between our countries promptly worsened. The Turkish Stream project was frozen.

It was followed by impulsive and so far from reality statements of the Turkish leaders that they will find other suppliers of gas who will be able to replace Russia. Considering the specific relations of Turkey with neighbors who theoretically could act such as «substitutes of Russia», as well as lack of necessary infrastructure, Turkey has no chances to realize threats.

Besides, the new gas pipeline generated a lot of benefits for Turkey: direct (economy on the gas price, transit payments) as well as indirect (strengthening of positions in the Balkan region). It was obvious that the project defrosting — business of time and good will of the parties.

Cautiously we will come on thin ice of psychology and we will assume that the beginning of realization of the Turkish stream will make the demoralizing impact on opponents of his northern colleague. That is realization of Nord Stream-2 will be facilitated.

But it is not the most important thing.

The most important thing is that our country will receive at least partial but replacement to the Ukrainian transit corridor which bears with itself both political risks and risks of purely technical refusals because of extreme wear of «pipe». Actually, the efforts of Gazprom and its European buyers are directed on solution of this problem. The Turkish stream will increase reliability of deliveries.
Within a week, perhaps, it is possible to hear loud statements of the representatives of the European leaders who recovered from shock after signing of the intergovernmental agreement. However what can it make with the gas pipeline which does not go across the European Union territory, except the statement of traditional doubts in prospects of the project, its economic validity and political reliability? It is not clear.

But it is clear that opposition of the European politicians and the European economy will not end on it as Gazprom with partners still should resolve an issue of supply of gas to the north of Italy (one of the main consumers according to the plans of South Stream) which will become urgent after 2019. Perhaps, the problem will be solved at the expense of the joint project with Greece but on this field the European Commission can start throwing sand in the wheels. It can act safely and recklessly because in 2019 when the term of the transit agreement with Ukraine expires and when «roundabout» gas pipelines is to be ready, powers of present members of the European Commission will expire and absolutely different people will be responsible for consequences of their actions.