Is it a reason for a profit or incentive for the solution of real problems?

At the beginning of December the World meteorological organization UN (VMO) published preliminary information on condition of climate of our planet. In the VMO report asserts that average temperatures for the last decade were the highest for all history of observations and concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached record level and continues to grow. Thus 2019 became one of the hottest in the history of mankind. Such a global warming is resulted by catastrophic thawing of glaciers and the frightening raising of global sea level. And the extreme weather events provoked by it become the reasons of all key problems of Earth. Specialists of the international organization explain that such a situation is caused by the greenhouse gases getting to the atmosphere of Earth as a result of anthropogenic activity. VMO predicts further warming. And if not to take urgent measures for fight against climate change, by the end of century an average temperature will grow more than on 3°C. And it, according to the ecologists of the UN, will lead to catastrophic consequences for mankind. However, many scientists draw absolutely opposite conclusions. Their passionless analysis of climatic indicators says that actually the global cold snap approaches on Earth.

From everlasting a man was sure that he exactly if not completely defines existence of life on Earth, at least makes key impact on it. That anyway, but specifically all natural phenomena occurring around depend on him. Warming or a cold snap, a flood or a drought, a heat or frosts, eruptions of volcanoes or an earthquake, typhoons or a tsunami, storms or hurricanes — all these as if results of human activity, direct or indirect, depending on approaches — scientific, pseudoscientific or religious and mystical.

With development of civilization a man did not become more modest but even opposite — his self-importance promptly grew. Therefore there is nothing surprising that over time there was a mass of supporters of the theories claiming that human activity exactly is the main reason of the most awful natural cataclysms on Earth. And in the future inevitably threatens us with the terrible climatic disasters capable do not only completely destroy all mankind, but even the planet on which it lives. Today such a point of view applies not only for full objectivity of the available conclusions but also for their absolute infallibility at the level of belief and religious dogmas. Even despite a shortcoming and sometimes total absence of real proofs to that.

Opponents of such approach, based on the scientific facts and proofs, claim that a man with all the anthropogenic impact on the nature, as before, in processes of climate change of Earth does not play defining role. Though, certainly, they recognize a need of solution of a number of the environmental and nature protection problems including the problems, connected directly with human activity. But the problems real and concrete — revealed and scientifically proved, but not estimated or hypothetically possible, created in the frames of theories and guesswork confirmed with nothing.

The first accuse the opponents that those represent interests of business controlling production and processing of energy resources — natural gas, oil, coal. And in this case, they are anyway insincere, trying to hide harmful consequences of impact of the productions on environment. The second reproach with opponents that those use the arguments as levers of unfair competition in the course of fight between global industrial and raw corporations. They apply as a factor of geopolitical pressure upon the states having considerable stocks of raw materials and impressive volumes of its production, and also as the most effective way of a pulling from the so-called world community of fabulous means and resources on the solution of nonexistent problems.

Meanwhile supporters of theories of adverse effect of the person on the nature though did not prove the case scientifically, managed to create world system of fight against anthropogenic climatic changes of our planet with the help of global warming. Even in spite of the fact that they were caught already repeatedly on fraud and juggling of the facts and revealed corruption schemes which were directed only on strengthening of «belief» that their theories is the ultimate truth.

However many scientists with a world name, based on indicators of numerous objective analysis of a climatic situation on Earth for the last 60 years, claim that there is no warming — at present mankind is in the middle of a big cold snap and carbon dioxide, on which emissions in the atmosphere a man, by the way, has no the defining impact, influences ecology of our planet rather positively than negatively.

Science and life

The climate of certain regions of the world can change over time and it was paid attention on it in Ancient Greece. Further this confidence grew only. And human activity exclusively was considered as the main reason of such climatic changes. That is quite clear: deforestation, growth of livestock of cattle and its mass pasture, development of fields of natural minerals, drainage of bogs, creation of systems of an artificial irrigation and many other things really changed a landscape of separately taken territories, both in East, and in the Western hemisphere.

However when the world science really undertook studying of problems of climate change, having started collecting and seriously analyzing the huge massif of the relevant information, it became clear that, despite continuous and numerous fluctuations of meteorological and other weather parameters, there are no steady long-term tendencies confirming fatal influence of human activity on condition of our planet. Therefore, despite of all regional deviations of weather from traditional climatic indicators, by the beginning of the XX century scientists resolutely rejected the version that the mankind in general is capable to make cardinal impact on climate of Earth. Besides, they came to a conclusion that change in our planet is natural, continuous, inevitable and strongly stretched in time process.

Up to the end of the XVIII century most of representatives of a scientific world were sure that the climate of prehistoric eras practically did not differ from that they could observe. However then were found proofs that those changes of geological eras were followed also by big climatic changes. For the first time the attention to it was paid at the end of the XVII century — studying of fossil organic residues led to conclusions that once long ago the climate of our planet was much warmer. One and a half centuries later scientists made discovery that far back in the past the sharp cold snap on Earth led to long Ice Age when glaciers covered practically all Europe and the most part of North America. Movement of these glaciers at a cold snap and further warming also made defining impact on formation of modern landscape of these regions. And by the 1870s the theory of Ice Age became conventional in the world scientific community. By the way, the important contribution to development of this scientific direction was made by a Russian scientist — Prince Pyotr Kropotkin. He laid foundation of the theory of «quaternary freezing» and entered the term «permafrost» into use. It is obvious that a man could not become a reason of so cardinal climatic changes which took place in the past in any way.

Meanwhile in the XIX century scientists gave more and more attention to what makes key impact on climate of the planet in the modern world. And, as it is easy to guess, it also was not a man at all. So, a keen interest of scientific community attracted, in particular, intensity of radiation of solar energy, deviation of oceanic currents and directions of winds which can change during millions of years because of rises and lowering of mountain ridges, shifts of poles and an orbit of Earth depending on gravity of other planets of Solar system, and also actually the Sun and the Moon, and so on.
For example, scientists considered that fluctuations of solar activity can be a reason of many natural cataclysms on our planet. And vapors and gases accumulating in the atmosphere of Earth interfere with impact on it of the infrared radiation of the Sun. Climatic conditions of the planet can change depending on concentration of these vapors and gases. So, calculations according to which doubling of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will cause growth of temperature in Earth surface on 5-6 °C were made and reduction of quantity of CO2 in half will lead to coming of new Ice Age on the planet. Nobody even thinks to assume that influence of human activity on these processes can be essential. However possible effect was counted after all.

It appeared that theoretically emissions of carbon dioxide can really lead to warming of climate of Earth; however, it will take not one millennium even under conditions most favorable for this purpose. And with minimum participation of a man in it — key role here could play such factors as, let say, volcanic activity or other natural processes, which constantly happens on our planet. But even these scientists consider impossible in reality as any excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is capable «to digest» the World Ocean easily.

In the XX century the science continued active development. However, cardinal change of opinions of scientific community concerning influence of the person on climate did not happen. However the world cardinally changed — there came the era of hydrocarbons. Emergence of multinational corporations and strengthening of the competition between them led to attempts of business to exploit science especially in their interests. Division of the world after World War II in two contradictory camps — socialist and capitalist even more affected objectivity of conclusions of some scientists including concerning environmental problems. These conclusions, often very far from real science, began to be used actively in competitive fight between business and political systems and considering that most of far from science people does not understand it — quite successfully.

Such a situation allowed rather long time giving forecasts which had no relation to reality. So, «authoritative analysts» predicted further terrible warming, others — a catastrophic cold snap. Meanwhile key influence on this «scientific» throwing is rendered with two extremely important factors: loss of direct control over the colonies by the world empires and loss by multinational corporations of direct access to key fossil resources, first of all to the power, namely — to reserves of coal, oil and natural gas.

Such a turn of events allowed to be defined quickly as «the most developed countries of the world» (to which it was vital to provide itself with cheap energy resources), and transnational business (which still controlled stocks, production and deliveries of raw materials, not to mention financial streams). Recognition of the scientific fact (which completely is true) that on Earth goes gradual process of a cold snap, inevitably would lead to a forward increase in prices for all energy carriers. And in addition, to a need to reckon even more seriously with interests of the countries which control the main reserves of energy resources, key for mankind. Let’s remind that today they are (oil): Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates and (natural gas): Russia, Iran and Qatar. Meanwhile full support of the myth about global warming allows not only forcing down but even to underestimate the real cost of energy carriers but also to put powerful pressure on the manufacturing countries, including extorting from them a huge payment for the «irreparable ecological injury» caused to the planet, though honest scientists continue claiming that there is no global warming.

Ice Age and CO2

The engaged by nobody and nothing world scientific community keeps status quo: any warming of climate of Earth is unnoticed, neither for the last 100 years, nor for 10 thousand years preceding it. Everything indicates a global cold snap. The analysis of an ice core of Antarctica, in particular, testifies to it, as well as data of system of automatic monitoring of temperature of the World Ocean «Argo» — they go down. Snow cover of the Northern hemisphere during the winter period progressively increases. On a half of the territory of the USA adjoining the Atlantic coast in 120 last years an average annual temperature seriously fell — about 100 million people try to cope with consequences of extremely cold weather. Practically all east coast of North America suffers because of unknown frosts and heavy snowfalls. The winter of 2018-2019 is called record-breaking cold in the history of the USA – stem of a thermometer in northeast states showed below 40 °C. Abnormally low temperatures and powerful snowfalls were noted last winter in Great Britain, France, Belgium and Italy.

However, we will give the following statistics that did not look as words only. In general about 200 thousand people across Europe die annually from an excessive heat and of cold about 1.5 million. Thus, only for the last decade Europe lost about 15 million people because of abnormal cold, it is in 10 times more than from an intolerable heat. The amount of death in England and Wales caused by cold weather in recent years makes about 25 thousand people every winter, with amendment that during the winter period of 1998-2000 about 47 thousand British annually perished from cold. And it is not a limit. Official London referred 2.3 million families or 10% of all population of the country to «fuel beggars» until recently. Meanwhile real figures are much higher here – 6.3 million, or 24%. At the same time in Helsinki about 300 people die from cold, nearly 1.7 thousand annually die of heat. In Athens — about 1.4 thousand and 7.9 thousand respectively. Against all this it is strange to argue on global warming.

However, here it is not so superfluous will be to notice that recently the climatic cold snap is felt even in North Africa, in particular, in Algeria and Tunisia where there were powerful snowfalls last year which should not have happened here at all.

Therefore no wonder that representatives of the American scientific community and 17 thousand scientists headed by the former president of National academy of Sciences of the USA Frederik Zeyttsen spoke against the theory of global warming, note that air temperature in the United States and in the world for the last some decades decreased but did not rise. Moreover, increase in quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere due to improvement of photosynthesis led to growth of the woods in the USA for 30% and in many respects promoted increase for 20-40% of productivity of wheat, rice, potatoes, bean, and fruit trees. Not to mention that burning of coal and firewood leads to increase in emissions in the atmosphere of the sulfite aerosols lowering air temperature.

Scientists consider that emissions of carbon dioxide, which act as the main reason for greenhouse effect, are consequences of natural warming. Heating the World Ocean (the main storage of carbon dioxide) even on half-degree entails the most powerful emission of this substance in the atmosphere. At change of temperature towards minus decrease in concentration of CO2 begins. Besides, its content is also influenced by activity of volcanoes and forest fires but not industrial activity of a man.

Besides, CO2 which is thrown out by mankind is not inert gas; it does not collect in the atmosphere. A half of emission is absorbed by the ocean; a part positively influences green material of plants. Satellite pictures of NASA show that since 1981 the vegetation in northern latitudes became a thick and it is greener and there are no «droughts» and «accidents» here.

A ratio of annual emission and absorption of CO2 for the main components of the terrestrial climatic car looks so. Water of oceans contains 38 trillion tons of carbonic acid. Evolving 88 billion tons, oceans absorb 90. Terrestrial plants and the soil accumulate 200 billion tons of CO2, evolving 119 billion tons of gas, they absorb on 1 billion tons more. Changes in land use do not almost affect balance of carbon dioxide (0.2 billion tons). The atmosphere contains 730 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Thus, without volcanoes the terrestrial three-phase cover contains about 41 trillion tons of CO2; burning of fossil power sources and the industry generate only 6.3 billion tons. Without having an opportunity to influence somehow considerably the natural factors, operating emission and absorption of 99.985% of carbonic acid, ecologists demand rigid control under other 0.015% and declare a «selective» crusade against «destroyers of nature».

Harmful gas?

Despite the facts and arguments given by scientific community, ecologists continue to go on about global warming and harm of CO2. And, unfortunately, many trust it, fell for such persistence. Therefore almost whole world managed was involved in the 1990s in the useless Kyoto Protocol and then and in the Parisian agreement.

In the first case the countries assumed quantitative obligations for restriction or reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases in 2008-2012 — the first period of action of the Kyoto Protocol. The main mechanism of its realization should be the mechanism of trade in quotas. The purpose of restrictions is to lower the cumulative average level of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases on 5% in comparison with the level of 1990. However after summarizing of official results in 2015 it became clear that universal emissions of CO2 during this time were not only failed to reduce, but even grew — almost in 1.5 times. Thus if some states executed and even surpass their targets (for example, the European Union achieved reduction more than on 11%, and Russia — almost on 30%), the most part of the countries which now most actively agitate to fight for preservation of climate, including by means of mechanisms of the Parisian agreement, made almost nothing for reduction of emissions. So, Japan which was one of the initiators of the Kyoto Protocol, instead of decrease on 6% increased volumes of issue of CO2 on 18% approximately and refused at all to participate in the second stage of the Kyoto Protocol. Emissions of Australia instead of the declared 8% grew almost in 1.5 times. The USA did not ratify the signed agreement, and Canada simply refused to fulfill the obligations.

In 2012 validity of the Kyoto Protocol was prolonged till 2020 (the second period of action of the protocol within which, by the way, Russia did not begin to assume quantitative obligations). Meanwhile the world has been imposed already new the Parisian agreement on climate, which target, and it is clear already today, will also not be reached — deduction of a gain of global average temperature below 2 °C «over preindustrial levels» and making efforts to restrict growth of temperature to the level of 1.5 °C and again due to restriction of emissions of greenhouse gases.

At the same time analysts consider that the sense of these ecological initiatives, besides continuation of development of the global business based actually on «trade in air» — exerting pressure of the most developed states upon economies of developing countries, including through restriction of use of fossil fuel by them, especially in case «the educated world» will not be able to control this process directly.

As for global natural changes, scientists are still sure that even at present level of development the mankind is not able to influence cardinally climate of our planet. But can react to possible threats in time, if, of course, they are real but not invented. «For billions years of existence Earth repeatedly endured the periods of an explosive volcanism, flashes on the Sun, tectonic accidents, endured about 100 asteroid attacks, similar subjects which ruined dinosaurs. And it was not a single act — frequency of such events is known, it makes about 33 million years. The land was replaced with the sea, and, on the contrary, 10-kilometer mountains grew and then became an ocean floor again. Despite all these grandiose events in the history of Earth, an average temperature of a terrestrial surface never deviated below 8ºС above 10ºС from modern», — the climate scientist Vladimir Klimenko told.