There has been a lot of talk recently about the huge prospects of the gas market in the People’s Republic of China gas market and this is indeed the case. If in 2023 China consumed about 395 billion cubic meters of natural gas, in 2040 this indicator will increase to 600-670 billion cubic meters.

However, the plans of other Asian countries, which plan to increase both consumption and imports of gas, are lost against this background.

Vietnam

In particular, in October this year, Vietnam’s state-owned Oil and Gas Company Petrovietnam and the State Electricity Company of Vietnam (EVN) signed an agreement to purchase electricity from the Nien Nha 3 and Nien Nha 4 imported LNG-based power generation projects in Dong Nai Province, South Vietnam. Power of each of blocks makes 750 MW. This agreement can become an important basis for promotion of other projects of generation based on LNG in Vietnam, as this first such an agreement in the country. LNG on these blocks will be delivered from the Thi Wai terminal. At the moment the cumulative rated capacity of gas power plants in Vietnam makes 7.2 GW. According to the Power Sector Development Plan VIII (PDP 8) adopted last year, the installed gas-fired generation capacity will increase to 40.3 GW by 2035, of which more than 20 GW will be focused on LNG imports.

Thus, the Power Industry of Vietnam magazine published on September 18 calculations of the experts according to which LNG which Petrovietnam gas delivers to the generating enterprises in the south of Vietnam, costs them for 20-50% more expensive than the natural gas extracted in the territory of Vietnam. In 2024, the cost of LNG including terminal storage, regasification and delivery to the end consumer is $12-14/million BTU ($430-500/thousand cm), while the cost of domestically produced gas from the Mekong and South Kon Son Basins is $9-10/million BTU ($320-360/thousand cm).

In 2023 consumption of gas in Vietnam made 7.2 billion cubic meters. Until recently own gas production completely satisfied needs of the country. However, in process of exhaustion of stocks of the operating fields and shortage of new projects on production, volumes of internal production are gradually reduced. At the same time, the stable economic growth of Vietnam promotes increase in demand for the electric power. To meet existing demand and ensure future growth, the authorities have stepped up efforts to develop new fields and import LNG. In 2023 Vietnam imported the first LNG party and soon plans to start the second terminal for its import.

The relatively high cost of LNG creates difficulties for Vietnamese generating enterprises in selling electricity. For a long time, they have not been able to sell electricity at prices higher than the tariffs set by the state. It limited a possibility of use of LNG and created obstacles for implementation of new projects of gas generation. However, in May 2024, Vietnamese authorities approved a preferential tariff for LNG-fired gas-fired power plants that allows for break-even power sales at an LNG production cost of $13/million Btu ($464/thousand cm).

At the beginning of October there was information that the Japanese Sumitomo conglomerate plans to realize the construction project of gas power plant Wanfong 2 in the coastal province Khankhoa (the central part of Vietnam). The gas block will work at the imported LNG, its power will make 3 000 MW. The project is supposed to be realized in two stages, the total cost of the project will make about 4 billion dollars. Now Sumitomo acts as the operator of the 1 432 MW coal station Wanfong 1. The Wanfong 2 project is not among the gas power plants included in the development plan of generation approved by the government of Vietnam.

On September 24, Platts news agency, citing a presentation by the State Electricity Company of Vietnam (EVN), reported that Vietnam will continue to face a shortage of gas in generation next year due to a decline in gas production by about 2.7-4.2 million cubic meters per day (1-1.5 billion cubic meters per year). Thus difficulties at construction of regasification terminals will not allow to replace in full shortage of own gas with LNG import. The gas blocks in southern and southeastern Vietnam have a total capacity of 7.2 GW and consume 24-26.6 million cubic meters of gas per day. Now because of exhaustion of fields this demand is satisfied less than half. So far only one 1 million tons of LNG Tkhivay LNG terminal in a year is put into operation in the country. Its target consumer — blocks 3 and 4 of station — are still unfinished therefore import of LNG for needs of other gas stations is possible via the terminal. Construction of the Kaymep terminal of Hailin Company with capacity 3 million tons per year is also completed. The third block of power plant Nyonchat, the first in Vietnam, working only on the imported LNG, will be put into commercial operation in April, 2025. The beginning of commercial operation of the fourth block of station is planned for July, 2025. The general power of two blocks makes 1.5 GW.

Singapore

In October, 2024 the Minister of Industry and Trade of Singapore Yen Jingyun told about plans to put the second LNG terminal into operation to provide a growing demand for natural gas from the generation companies of the country. It is about floating regasification installation with a capacity of 5 million tons of LNG a year which is planned to rent at the Japanese company Mitsui OSK Lines.

Natural gas plays a key role in the energy sector of Singapore — in 2023 96% of all electric power developed in the country was made at gas power plants. In 2023 demand for gas in Singapore made 13 billion cubic meters, thereof 6.8 was a share of the imported LNG, and 6.2 — of pipeline gas from Indonesia and Malaysia. Supply of LNG to Singapore is conducted via the Singapore LNG terminal with a capacity of 11 million tons per year. After commissioning of the second terminal the cumulative capacity of terminals of Singapore will increase almost for 50%. Now 4 companies — two local power state companies Pavilion Energy and Sembkorp and also Shell and ExxonMobil have rights of supply of LNG to Singapore. The main volumes of LNG to the country deliver to the Pavilion Energy and Shell Company. Sembkorp is also responsible for import of pipeline gas.

Philippines

In 2024 production of natural gas on the largest field of Malampaya on Philippines will make about 2.1 billion cubic meters and by 2030 to decrease more than by 50% to 0.9 billion cubic meters. Along with it, by estimates of the research company B-M-I, demand for gas on Philippines can increase from 2.8 billion cubic meters to 12.6 billion cubic meters by 2033. Since 2023 Philippines import LNG under spot contracts.

About 20% of all electric power on Philippines is made at gas power plants. The basis of gas supply to the local market is from production at Malampaya. Due to gradual exhaustion of stocks on a field, Philippines began import of small volumes of LNG. In April, 2023 Philippines imported the first LNG shipment by means of floating storage and regasification unit to Batangas, which is under control of Singapore’s AIG&P. It was expected in the Ministry of Energy that by 2026 on Philippines it can be put into operation 5 more terminals on import of LNG total capacity of 21.7 million tons per year (about 30 billion cubic meters). Of these a Pagbilao terminal of the Philippine Company Energy World with a capacity of 3 million tons per year and the terminal in Batangas of the Philippine Generation Company First Gen and Japanese Tokyo Gas with a capacity of 5.26 million tons per year are on a closing stage of construction there. Last year, the Department of Energy of the Philippines adopted the Gas Industry Development Plan 2040. According to the basic scenario of the Plan, by 2040 primary consumption of energy resources on Philippines will grow almost three times, to 155.6 million tons of oil equivalent, thus the share of natural gas in energy balance will increase from 5.8% in 2020 to 17% in 2040, or from 3.8 to 30.8 billion cubic meters, and in generation sector — will increase from 20 to 40%.

Cambodia

In October, 2024 in Cambodia construction of the country’s first gas power plant began. For supply of power plant with gas Cambodia plans to begin LNG import. The power plant is located in the southwest province Kakhkong and has the power of 900 MW that there correspond nearly 20% of all generating capacities operating now in the country. Building of the plan is conducted by the Royal Group Company which plans to invest 1.3 billion dollars in the project. After commissioning the power plant will annually make to 6 billion KWh of the electric power that corresponds to nearly a quarter of all energy consumption of the country now. It is planned to sell the electric power to the state Сcompany Electrissite Du Cambodge (EDC) within the 30-year contract.
The volume of primary consumption of energy in Cambodia makes 9 million tons of oil equivalent, oil and biomass are generally used, and natural gas practically is not used. Royal Group is an investment company operating in the territory of Cambodia. The company does business in the sphere of telecommunications, finance and infrastructure construction, creation of special economic zones and also in the sphere of power supply. For generation of 6 billion KWh of electric power about 800 thousand tons of LNG a year can be demanded, which Cambodia will have to buy abroad.

India

Rajstad Energy, an analytical agency, released on October 24, 2024 a forecast for the growth of gas consumption in India. According to the analysts, it will increase twice by 2040: from 65 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 113.7 billion cubic meters, thanks to growth of the population, economic development and transition of the country to more «green» energy carriers. Now only about 2% of an energy balance of the country is a share of gas. In the short term consumption of gas will be supported by the growing internal production; however it will not be able to cover all future demand that causes the gradual growth of import of gas. However, Rajstad identifies a number of challenges that can hinder the development of the sector: so, for example, Indian buyers often demand bigger flexibility and the best prices in contracts that more than once led to cancellation of almost coordinated transactions. Besides, slow development of infrastructure and its concentration in specific regions along with bureaucratic obstacles can also limit growth of the sector.

In turn the American Institute of Economy and the Financial Analysis of Power in July, 2024 published the report on possibility of India to achieve a goal to increase a share of natural gas in energy balance to 15% or to bring consumption to 500 million cubic meters per day that will demand growth by 170% of the current level of 185 million cubic meters per day. It is noted in the report that for performance of the purpose it is necessary to increase internal gas production, but technological difficulties are in the way of it and need of increase in investments, as perspective fields belong to deep-water or have abnormally high reservoir pressure and temperature. Therefore own gas production in India probably will reach peak of 113 million cubic meters per day in 2026 and will decrease to 90 million cubic meters per day by 2030, that even below the current level of 99.5 million cubic meters per day. Respectively the main role in increase in consumption of gas is assigned to import deliveries. By 2030, the receiving capacity of regasification terminals should reach 240 million cubic meters per day, 40% higher than the current level. The authorities of India also plan considerable investments into gas-distributing networks for increase in consumption: the number of compressed natural gas refueling stations is to be increased from 6 861 to 17.5 thousand and the number of gas connections — from 13 million to 120 million subscribers.