The Russian side considers a new potential route of gas export through east Kazakhstan to China with power up to 35 billion cubic meters a year, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak reported at the forum “Sprouts: Russia and China — mutually beneficial cooperation».

According to him, study of the project is at initial stage: «So far only as an idea that is being discussed». This year, according to its data, supply of gas from the Russian Federation to the People’s Republic of China is estimated at 40 billion cubic meters taking into account LNG. In January — October, 2024 China imported 150.93 billion cubic meters of gas 13.6% more than in 10 months 2023. All forecasts speak about the inevitable growth of supply of gas to the People’s Republic of China.

On June 24, 2024, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) published a report on the impact of the «energy transition» on gas consumption in different regions of the world between now and 2050. The report predicts that China and ASEAN countries will show the highest growth in natural gas demand among all Asian macro-regions over the next 10 years. Going forward, growth in gas demand will depend on how aggressively policies to reduce greenhouse and pollutant emissions are pursued. The basic scenario which is calculated on the basis of already declared measures for decrease in harmful emissions and achievement of carbon neutrality provides that to 2030, 2040, 2050 demand for natural gas in China will make 541, 564 and 523 billion cubic meters respectively. In the ASEAN countries demand for gas is predicted at the level of 220, 240 and 234 billion cubic meters respectively. Thus specialists of the Institute consider that China will continue to develop successfully internal production and by 2040 will be able to come to «shelf» of production in 330-340 billion cubic m/g while in the countries of ASEAN decrease in production from 190 billion cubic m/g now to 110 billion cubic m/g by 2050 is expected. As for import supply of gas to China, specialists of the Institute expect that in the long term pipeline deliveries from Russia on the Force of Siberia — 2 will partially force out LNG supply. So, by 2030 supply of LNG to China is expected at the level of 143 billion cubic meters, and to 2040 and 2050 they can decrease to 88 and 41 billion cubic meters respectively. Pipeline deliveries to China to 2030, 2040 and can grow 2050 to 105, 143 and 143 billion cubic meters respectively. In the ASEAN countries because of the expected decrease in production new demand for gas and part of the dropping-out volumes of own production will be provided due to import of LNG which to 2030, 2040 and can make 2050 105,141 and 136 billion cubic meters respectively.

In 2023 consumption of natural gas in China made 394.5 billion cubic meters, gas production – 229.7 billion cubic meters, gas import – 166.2 billion cubic meters. Thus, proceeding from expected indicators of OIEI, by 2040 consumption of natural gas in China can increase by 170 billion cubic meters, gas production — on 100 billion cubic meters, gas import — on 70 billion cubic meters, and is almost exclusive due to growth of pipeline deliveries. The basic scenario of OIEI is the most pessimistic from the point of view of prospects of increase in demand for gas in China. It is 40-45 billion cubic meters lower than the long-term forecasts of the Research Institute at CNPC and Sinopec, which expect demand at 605-610 billion cubic meters by 2040. Chinese consultancy SIA Energy expects the country’s gas demand to be nearly 670 billion cubic meters by 2040. In ASEAN, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia are major gas producing countries and all but Thailand export gas mainly in the form of LNG. Sharp decrease in volumes of internal production after 2030 can mean that the majority of these countries will cease to export gas, and the LNG global market by 2040 can miss 50 million tons of LNG (69 billion cubic meters).

Thus China experiences difficulties with gas reserves, commercially favorable to development. In particular, on October 22, 2024 the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China published the annual report Mineral resources of China according to which in 2023 the Chinese companies made significant progress when carrying out the exploration in gas-bearing pools in the territory of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, in particular, in Tarimsky and Dzhungarsky pools and in the Province of Sichuan. In the sphere of slate gas exploration in the territory of the city district Chongqing and the Province of Hubei was conducted. Exploration in sea water areas, including in the sphere of gas hydrates proceeded. Oil and gas exploration investment totaled nearly 94 billion yuan ($13.5 billion), up 13.8% year over year. Following the results of 2023 the residual technically taken reserves of natural gas in China made 6 742 billion cubic meters — on 173 billion cubic meters more than following the results of 2022.

In China reserves of natural gas share on some categories, including «geological stocks», «technically taken stocks» and «stocks which production is economically profitable». For the last few years were published data on «technically taken stocks». In the report following the results of 2022 technically taken reserves of traditional natural gas are specified at the level of 6 569 billion cubic meters, thus data on technically taken reserves of slate gas (560.5 billion cubic meters) and methane of coal layers (365.9 billion cubic meters) were also provided — in 2024 the data on reserves of slate gas and municipal unitary enterprise were not published. The data on the volume of stocks which development is economically profitable, last time were officially published in China in 2018 when the ministry estimated them at the level of 3 900 billion cubic meters. The Chinese companies regularly report on detection of new considerable reserves of natural gas, however the Chinese branch experts note that economic feasibility of development of such stocks often is doubtful, including because of the gradual growth of a depth of productive layer and other technical difficulties.