The European Union countries in 2025 increased import of natural gas up to 312.7 billion cubic meters in comparison with 297.9 billion cubic meters in 2024. Thereof 143.1 billion cubic meters were a share of LNG. Such data follow from the published statistics of Bruegel.

Norway which provided to the EU 97.1 billion cubic meters (31% of total import) became the largest source for import again. Deliveries from this direction were slightly reduced relatively 2024 when they made 99.1 billion cubic meters.

The American LNG — 82.9 billion cubic meters (26.5% of total import and 58% of import of LNG) became the second largest source of gas in the EU. Growth relatively 2024 was 61.4% — 31.6 billion cubic meters.

On the third place was Algeria — 38.6 billion cubic meters (in 2024 — 41.9 billion cubic meters). The share of this country in the European external purchases made 12.3%.

Russia in 2025 delivered 37.99 billion cubic meters of gas to EU countries (12.1%). Of this, 20.3 billion cubic meters were LNG deliveries (14.2% of LNG purchases). Import of the Russian gas decreased relatively 2024 by 16.5 billion cubic meters that is connected with the termination of pumping through the Ukrainian corridor after expiration of the contract for transit.

It is characteristic that the Norwegian offshore management predicts decrease in the production of gas and oil in the country by 2030 and decrease in investments by 6.6% in 2026 in comparison with 2025. In 2026, natural gas production will make 123.1 billion cubic meters according to forecasts, it is 3.3 billion cubic meters more than last year, but is 1.1 billion cubic meters lower than record level of 2024. According to the directorate’s head, Torgeir Stordal, gas production volumes are expected to remain at the current plateau until 2027, after which they will begin to decline.

The analytical company Kpler published the forecast of development of the gas market of the EU in 2026. It is said in it that in the current year consumption of gas in the EU will be 320.4 billion cubic meters. It is 0.4% more than in 2025. Internal gas production in the EU in 2026 will continue to decrease, having reduced by 1% year-over-year to 38 billion cubic meters.

Since January 1, two coal power plants which remained on the mainland of Italy with a general power of 3.65 GW stopped working. Last August, the Italian government announced its intention to put the country’s coal-fired power plants into «cold standby» mode until 2038, when small modular nuclear reactors (SMRRs) will be commissioned. The purpose is in supporting the stations in working order and to provide their availability to use in case of emergency situation in the country.

The Ministry of Energy of Poland lowered the goals in the RES area. So, in power balance of the country their share has to reach 51-53% by 2030 that below the target indicator in 59% established in the national plan for power and climate in 2024. At the same time the share of natural gas in a country energy balance will increase. The Ministry of Energy said that annual power production will grow from 158 TWh in 2020 to 196 TWh in 2030. It is expected that annual consumption of natural gas will increase from 21 billion cubic meters in 2020 to 24-25 billion cubic meters in 2030.

USA

At the end of last year U.S. authorities appealed to colleagues from the EU to exempt till October, 2035 the American companies from the requirement to provide data on the emissions of methane made in the course of production and transportation of gas and the oil supplied to the European market. The US appeal called the EU’s methane emissions regulations «a dangerous non-tariff trade barrier that places an undue burden on US exporters and the trade relationship» between the US and the EU. Since 2027 the companies importing coal, oil and gas have to provide the annual report on the accompanying methane emissions. Since August 5, 2030 the deliveries of energy carriers under new contracts will have to conform to requirements for restriction of emissions of methane. At the same time target indicators are not established yet, as well as a technique of accounting of emissions.

Dan Jorgensen, a member of the European Commission responsible for energy issues, said that the Commission is ready to help stakeholders overcome «problems» in implementing its methane emission regulations, but will not make changes to the law.

Gazprom Forecast

According to preliminary estimates of Gazprom specialists in 2025 the world consumption of gas grew by 25 billion cubic meters. Significant events became decrease in interest in projects in the field of renewable energy and revision of priorities of development in favor of hydrocarbons in a number of the countries and the international energy companies.

Natural gas will continue to play a key role in the global energy sector. According to forecasts, its consumption will continue to grow in the world: by 2050 it will increase more than by a third and will exceed 5.7 trillion CBM. Electricity production will make the largest contribution to increased consumption. In particular, the development of data center capacity alone can provide more than 10% of the expected increase in gas demand.

China will be the leader in terms of long-term growth in gas consumption. Significant increase in demand for gas is predicted also in other countries of the Global South. Their cumulative share in world gas consumption by 2050 will make about 70%.

In 2025 Gazprom for the first time delivered to China more gas than to Europe. Last year Gazprom delivered to China gas pipeline 38.8 billion cubic meters of gas via the Force of Siberia (24.8% higher than an indicator of 2024). Thus, the company exported more pipeline gas to China than to all other European countries (including Turkey).

In 2025, Gazprom increased gas transportation via the European branch of the Turkish Stream pipeline by 8% compared to the previous year, to 18.06 billion cubic meters. Significant increase in deliveries is noted in December of last year — for 14% by December, 2024, to 1.735 billion cubic meters. Capacities of the gas pipeline were used for 99%.

Besides, the company in 2025 increased Russian gas supplies to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan by 22.2%, to Georgia — by 40.4%.

Gas export from Russia to the countries of Central Asia is Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan by 2030 can grow in total by 2.1-2.2 times and reach 19-20 billion cubic meters. It follows from the forecast of analysts of the Center for Economic Forecasting (CEF) of Gazprombank.

According to Gazprombank’s CEF review, the main growth in supplies will be driven by exports to Uzbekistan. The experts specify that the majority of large-scale deposits in the country are exhausted and are in a stage of the falling production. Since 2019, gas production in Uzbekistan was reduced more than by a quarter. Since 2023 Uzbekistan became net importer of gas and began to buy it from Russia. It is told in the review that in 2024 import made 5.6 billion cubic meters, and in 2030 it can grow to 12 billion cubic meters. The analysts consider that deliveries to Uzbekistan from Turkmenistan at the same time will remain at the level of 5 billion cubic meters.

Russian gas supplies to Kazakhstan, by estimates of Gazprombank’s CEF, in 2030 can increase by 2-2.3 times and reach 6-7 billion cubic meters. According to Vadim Pugach, an analyst at Gazprombank’s CEF, supplies to Kyrgyzstan will not exceed 1 billion cubic meters during the period under review.

According to analysts, Azerbaijan will be another promising export destination among neighboring countries. In 2030 the deliveries to this country, according to their forecast, will make 3-4 billion cubic meters. Now volumes of export of the Russian gas to the republic are insignificant.

In total, gas exports to these four countries could reach 22-24 billion cubic meters in 2030, which is 2.5-2.7 times higher than in 2024.

China

In December last year, the Institute of Economics and Technology of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) presented the Report on the Development Results of China’s Oil and Gas Industry in the 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) and the Forecast of China’s and the World’s Energy Development until 2060. It is noted in it that geological reserves of natural gas in China exceeded 7 trillion CBM, having increased in comparison with an indicator of the 13th five-year period (2016-2020) by 40%. During the 14th five-year plan, natural gas production increased by an average of 13 billion cubic meters annually, and during the 15th five-year plan (2026-2030) it will continue to grow by an average of 10 billion cubic meters by the end of the specified period, it will exceed 300 billion cubic meters a year. Subsequently growth rates of gas production in China can slow down, and by 2060 the volume of production can exceed 350 billion cubic meters, and from the middle of the 2030s the main share in production will fall on nonconventional types of natural gas. Demand for gas by 2030 will reach 550 billion cubic meters, by 2035 will approach 640 billion cubic meters, by 2040 can be 700 billion cubic meters. In the long term up to 70% of increase in demand for gas can be connected with sectors of the industry and the electric power. By 2060 the volume of rated capacities of gas generation can reach 500 GW. At the same time demand for the electric power in China, as expected, can double in comparison with the current level and by 2060 to exceed 20 trillion kWh.

In the previous long-term forecast for natural gas demand in China which was published in December, 2024 the specialists of the Institute noted that by 2035 China will reach the peak value of demand for gas at the level of 620-650 billion cubic meters a year, and production at the same time will be 310 billion cubic meters. The new forecast includes more favorable predictions for gas demand growth, which could reach up to 700 billion cubic meters by 2040. At the end of 2024, China adopted a new policy on the use of natural gas, which removed previous restrictions on the development of gas generation. It is believed that gas generation can become a tool for smoothing the peak load on the grid as the share of renewable energy in generation increases. In the new forecast expectations concerning development of gas generation are also increased to 500 GW (in the last year’s forecast — 400 GW). When talking about the growth of geological reserves of natural gas to 7 trillion cubic meters, the Institute probably means the remaining technically recoverable gas reserves. At the same time, the CNPC Institute for Oil and Gas Exploration and Development notes that the current volume of economically recoverable reserves is almost half as much — 3.7 trillion cubic meters.

In turn at the end of December the Platts Agency submitted its forecast of development of the gas market in China in 2026. Experts of the agency expect that demand for gas in China will grow by 4.5% and will be 450 billion cubic meters. Most demand for gas will grow in the transport sector which can increase by 10%, to 37 billion cubic meters rapidly. The housing-and-municipal sector and the sector of generation will grow by 6% everyone, up to 112 and 102 billion cubic meters respectively. Demand in the industrial sector will grow the slowest and may reach 158 billion cubic meters by the end of 2026.