Against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, gas prices in the European and Asian markets have once again started to rise. Market participants note that the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains a major contributor to the high volatility in prices.

Since April 13, the trading session on European gas and electricity markets has been extended to 21 hours, up from 10 hours previously. The loss of Russian gas made the European energy market more complex and volatile, attracting more interest from global energy traders. Now, changes in gas hub prices in other regions of the world have a significant impact on the European market, making it more complex and multi-faceted. Many trading companies have not yet decided to expand their staff but prefer to assess the need for this after the introduction of long trading sessions.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the European Union countries ended their heating season in early April, which was the second-longest season since 2011.

Duration of a season of gas offtake from underground storages (UGS) in the EU was 173 days that it is less only an indicator of winter of 2020-2021 when this process lasted for 190 days. As a result, Europe’s UGS facilities have been emptied to about 28% of their capacity, with about 31 billion cubic meters of gas still remaining.

Over the past heating season, European countries extracted more than 71 billion cubic meters of gas from storage facilities, and the net extraction rate (the difference between extraction and injection) exceeded 61 billion cubic meters. This value is 6.5 billion cubic meters more than the volume that was pumped into underground reservoirs in the summer. By mid-February, the EU countries used up all the gas stored during the warm season, and they began to use reserves from previous years.

Europe passed to an active phase of pumping raw materials into UGS for preparation for the next winter period. Nevertheless the summer season, most likely, will pass in conditions of the high prices of gas because of the escalated competition for free volumes of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asian buyers which was provoked by the Middle Eastern conflict.

In the first quarter Russia increased gas export to Europe on the Turkish Stream pipeline for 10%, to 4.96 billion cubic meters (according to data of the European network of operators of gas transmission systems). In March Russia delivered gas to Europe 12% more than in February and 21% more than in March of last year. The volume of deliveries reached 1.7 billion cubic meters. Average loading of The Turkish Stream in the direction of Europe made 55 million cubic meters a day that is 21% more than in March, 2025. Concerning results of February this indicator increased by 1%. In March the pipeline was loaded for 97%.

As you know, the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, with a capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters per year, runs through the Black Sea and carries gas from Russia to Turkey and the countries of Southern and Southeastern Europe.

At the same time the volume of supply of liquefied natural gas from Russia to the European Union countries in the first quarter 2026 was 6.544 billion cubic meters. It is an absolute quarter record for all the time of deliveries (according to Bruegel). For January-March, 2025 the EU countries imported 5.492 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG. The previous record was set in the first quarter of 2024 of 5.976 billion cubic meters.

It is not surprising that the CEO of the Italian company ENI, Claudio Descalzi, called on the EU to postpone the ban on Russian LNG imports, which is set to take effect on January 1, 2027, to avoid exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand in Europe caused by reduced gas supplies from the Middle East. According to Descalzi, «gas provides flexibility to the energy system for all power plants, which is not the case with renewable energy sources that cannot be stopped and nuclear energy.» At the same time, construction of gas power plants continues in Europe. In particular, the Hungarian energy company MVM has started construction of a 1 GW gas-fired power plant. The project cost is 1.5 billion Euros. Commissioning of the first power unit is planned for 2029, the second — for February, 2030. This is the largest investment project in the history of MVM and potentially the second most powerful power plant of Hungary after the NPP Paks.

GECF Forecasts

In April, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) issued a forecast stating that Europe remains the world’s leading gas import hub, accounting for more than a third of global pipeline trade. This market is based on the EU, Great Britain and Turkey, and the regional structure of deliveries is generally maintained by five external partners: Algeria, Azerbaijan, Libya, Norway and Russia.
According to GECF, in 2026 the main emphasis will be placed on ensuring stable supply of pipeline gas to Europe under conditions of the transformed market. It is expected that volumes of import will moderately be restored due to record deliveries on the Turkish Stream gas pipeline and stage-by-stage expansion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).

«This growth first of all is caused by the need of filling of underground gas storages in Europe to obligatory standard levels. At the same time, Europe is expected to prioritize pipeline gas supplies as a strategic defense against volatile spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially as the conflict in the Middle East escalates, increasing competition with the Asia-Pacific region for available spot LNG supplies,» the document states.

The share of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in global natural gas production will increase to 44% by 2055, up from 38% in 2024, according to the Forum’s Secretary-General, Philippe Mshelbila, during the presentation of the Global Gas Outlook 2055.

According to the materials presented by analysts of GECF, gas production by the countries of the Forum will increase up to 2.4 trillion cubic meters by 2055 about 1.57 trillion cubic meters in 2024. GECF expects that 12.3 trillion dollars will be invested in gas production in the world by 2055 totally. It is noted that annual expenses will grow from 236 billion dollars in 2025 to 458 billion dollars by 2055.

The countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) will triple their natural gas imports by 2055. «Gas imports in the APR will increase from 267 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 820 billion cubic meters by 2055,» according to the Global Gas Outlook 2055 presentation by GECF.

China

Bloomberg reported on April 13 that the average daily LNG supply to the Asian market over the past 30 days was less than 600,000 tons. This is the lowest volume since June 2020, when the decline in consumption was caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Pakistan did not import LNG since early March, and the decrease in average daily supplies to China over the last 30 days compared to the same period last year was 30%, while the decrease in supplies to India was 20%.

The National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China (the parliament of the country) approved the Plan of social and economic development of the People’s Republic of China in the period of the 15th five-year period (2026-2030). It assumes a «reasonable» rate of economic growth over the five-year period, with specific targets for GDP growth to be determined on an annual basis. Regarding power the Plan assumes construction of «clean, low-carbon, safe and effective power system», establishes the purpose on building of a share of not fossil sources in an energy balance of China at the level of 25% at the cumulative established production capacity of power in 5.8 billion tons of a coal equivalent. In the gas sphere the «stable» growth of production, continuation of reforming of a system of pricing, construction of gas storages is planned. Also it is planned to develop projects on natural gas production in Ordossky and Sichuan basins, projects of development of coalbed methane are separately mentioned. The need to continue technological developments in the field of gas turbines, deep-water natural gas and gas hydrate extraction, and the improvement of LNG tankers has been identified. In the sphere of construction of gas pipelines the need of modernization of gas distribution networks and also «construction of the gas pipeline from Russia to China along the Far East route, construction of the second line of the Sichuan — the East gas pipeline and advance of preliminary work on the gas pipeline from Russia to China along «a median route» is specified.

Korea

Due to the armed conflict in the Middle East the government of the Republic of Korea took a number of measures for minimization of consumption of LNG in the sphere of generation of the electric power. In particular, limits for work of coal power plants are lifted and the level of loading of the operating nuclear power plants from 60 is increased to 80%.

In 2025 the share of natural gas in generation made 27.4%, atomic generation — 31%, coal — 28.7%, RES — 11.4%. And the power generation share in the general structure of demand for natural gas made 46.5%. In 2025 the share of the countries of the Middle East in South Korean import of LNG made 20%, the total volume of deliveries — 9.1 million tons. Qatar’s share made 15%, the volume of deliveries of 7 million tons, Oman’s share was 4%, 1.9 million tons, a share of the UAE was 0.5%, 0.2 million tons. The Korean company KOGAS has three long-term contracts for LNG imports from Qatar, with a total volume of 6.1 million tons per year.

In the Republic of Korea, restrictions are usually imposed on the operation of coal-fired thermal power plants in the spring and winter period: a certain number of power units (depending on the demand for electricity) are stopped, and a maximum load limit (usually 80%) is imposed on the remaining thermal power plant units. In the current situation, the authorities have decided to lift these restrictions ahead of schedule.

Bolivia and Australia

Bolivia may have to start importing gas in 5-6 years to meet domestic demand. According to Ricardo Marcu, the head of Tectopetrol, this possibility arose after the country’s gas production decreased by almost half in 2025, reaching approximately 35 million cubic meters per day. To compensate for the decrease in domestic production, Bolivia will explore areas with very deep gas deposits.

At the beginning of April the Australian company Viva Energy got official approval of the authorities for construction of the terminal for import of LNG based on oil refinery in the seaport Dzhelong in the south of the country. This project has to provide reliable supply of gas to the State of Victoria against the background of promptly reduced reserves of natural gas in southeast Australia.

Our country may experience a de facto easing of sanctions (while they remain formally in place). China may accelerate the signing of a contract for the commencement of gas supplies under the Power of Siberia 2 project. Additionally, there will be an increase in the consumption of alternative energy sources such as coal.