It is known that the European Union proclaimed declared its goal to completely stop purchasing Russian gas. However, as they say, hunger breaks stone walls. Due to the reduction in gas supplies caused by the US and Israel’s gambit in the Middle East, EU countries were forced to change their stance towards Russian gas. 

Import of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the European Union countries from Russia in May grew by 21% in comparison with May of last year, having made 2.267 billion cubic meters while import from the countries of the Middle East for the first time for a history of observations reduced to zero, follows from data of the analytical company Bruegel.

Let’s remind that deliveries from Russia in March updated a record for all history of observations of Bruegel since 2019, having made 2.459 billion cubic meters. And in April they receded from a record after the EU imposed a ban on deliveries from Russia under short-term contracts. On this background import from Russia decreased in April in comparison with March by 11.8%. In May, import grew again — by 21%, up to 2.267 billion cubic meters.

At the same time Russian gas supplies to Europe on the Turkish Stream pipeline increased. More precisely they were restored in May after decrease in April and made 1.37 billion cubic meters. In average daily terms, month-on-month growth was 15.79%. In January–May, Russian gas exports to Europe via this pipeline increased by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching 7.65 billion cubic meters. In January — May export of the Russian gas to Europe on this pipeline increased by 6.5% in annual terms and reached 7.65 billion cubic meters.

The lack of natural gas led to increase in prices for it. According to the results of May, average price of gas contracts with delivery “one day ahead” on the TTF hub increased by 34.6% year-on-year, amounting to 47.102 EUR/MWh (about 590 dollars/thousand cubic meters), average price of contracts with delivery “one month ahead” increased by 34.55%, to 47.04 EUR/MWh.

Rising energy prices due to the war in Iran could lead to the loss of 1.3 million jobs in the European Union, as it was stated by European Commissioner for Labor Roxana Mynzatu. According to her, many jobs can lose such power-intensive industries as the automobile and chemical industries, metallurgy, construction and transport sector. According to the estimates of European Commission, most of all jobs can be reduced in automobile industry — to 600 thousand. In construction, metallurgy, transport and chemical industry 56 thousand jobs can be lost. In a risk zone also nearly 145 thousand jobs in solar power and production of accumulators.

The association of the gas capacity industry of Italy called the authorities of the country and the EU to take emergency measures in connection with increase in prices for gas. By estimates of the association, gas prices for the Italian industrial consumers since the end of February grew by 52% that will cost the gas capacity enterprises approximately EUR 1.5 billion additional expenses in a year. Decrease in power production on hydropower objects in Italy in January — May for 28% in comparison with the same period of last year led to growth of development at gas power plants for 5.2%, to a maximum for the last four years. At the same time in May growth of power production on gas stations was 35%.

The cold winter depleted Europe’s underground gas storage facilities, and rising prices are preventing them from being replenished. As of May 31, the EU’s UGS facilities were 40.09% full, which amounts to 453.63 TWh (42.95 billion cubic meters). Last year, the level of gas storage in Europe was much higher at 47.9%, and in 2024, it was even higher at 69.7%. If to compare to the average level for the last 5 years, then lag made 14 percentage points. All May this gap steadily increased.

It is not surprising that the Dutch government has approved a EUR 993 million subsidy for the state-owned company EBN to purchase up to 80 TWh (about 7.6 billion cubic meters) of gas in order to create reserves in UGS facilities if this is not done through market mechanisms. By November 1, the gas reserves in storages of the Netherlands have to reach 115 TWh (10.9 billion cubic meters). At the end of May the level of fullness of UGS in the country was 16% in comparison with 36% last year.

As a result, in May, the EU reduced its LNG imports by 8% y/y, to 8.8 million tons, including 5.1 million tons from the United States. The prices in the Asian spot market continue to remain more attractive.

The Bloomberg agency reported that in May LNG import by China was restored to the level of last year, having made about 4.9 million tons. The Chinese importers increase purchases of LNG against the background of the coming summer peak of consumption when because of hot weather the electricity consumption increases in the sphere of air conditioning. China replaces deliveries from Qatar with import of LNG from Canada, Malaysia, Russia and Oman.

It is indicative that export of the American LNG in May decreased to 10.2 million tons that is the lowest indicator this year. Decrease in the outputs was caused by scheduled downtimes of the plants against the background of maintenance, including postponed at the beginning of a year for a covering of high demand. At the same time, U.S. LNG supplies to Asia reached an annual high in May: The U.S. exported 3.68 million tons to the region, up 35.79% month-on-month.

Surprisingly, in May, Egypt became the leading buyer of American LNG, despite the fact that it was previously a gas exporter. This change in Egypt’s role in the global gas market was driven by a decrease in domestic gas production and an increase in gas consumption. The share of the European countries in export of LNG of the USA in May made 49%, having decreased the third month in a row and having reached the lowest indicator on monthly results since October, 2024. Europeans’ reliance on American LNG has not paid off. The companies prefer supplying gas to those markets where it is more expensive.

The fuel balance of the EU is also badly helped by renewable sources. Wind power generation in Europe in May, 2026 provided on average 14.6% of needs of the region for the electric power, the WindEurope association reports. A year ago, in May, 2025, the contribution of wind farms was higher — 15.04%.

Due to Kiev’s actions, Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukraine ceased since the beginning of 2025. Now, the problem of filling underground storage facilities is further complicated by the fact that, in addition to its own consumers, the EU is also required to supply gas to facilities in Ukraine, including for storage in underground storage facilities.

The fact that in May the supply of pipeline gas from Norway decreased by 2% in comparison with last year and made 8.5 billion cubic meters does not also please the European consumers.

The authorities of Great Britain traditionally criticize Russia much and constantly insist on toughening of sanctions. However in May the government of Great Britain postponed until January 1, 2027, input of the ban on rendering services, including insurance, connected with sea transportation of Russian LNG. According to officials, this step is necessary for consumer protection and guarantees of reliability of supply of fuel as the conflict in the Middle East leads to increase in prices for energy carriers.

Meanwhile, China is traditionally increasing its gas purchases from Russia: according to the General Administration of Customs of China, import of liquefied natural gas from Russia increased by 16% in January-April, reaching 2.02 million tons. Supply of the Russian pipeline gas to China in April grew at cost by 1.8% by March and made $703.9 million. According to this indicator, the Russian Federation ranked second among suppliers, behind Turkmenistan, which exported gas through the pipeline for $708 million. In recent years, the customs department has not disclosed the physical volume of pipeline gas imported by China.

The Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Board has so far published import statistics only for March, but the figures were very impressive. Totally in March Turkey imported 6.272 billion cubic meters of gas that is nearly 5% more than the previous year. Import of pipeline gas grew by 28% — up to 4.358 billion cubic meters. Deliveries from Russia made 2.551 billion cubic meters (growth by 42.5%) in a month.

Import of liquefied natural gas in March was reduced by 26% to 1.914 billion cubic meters, or 1.47 million tons. The Turkish terminals on intake of LNG worked with 60 percent loading. Supply of LNG from the USA made 977 million cubic meters (-37%), of Algeria — 473 million cubic meters (-26%).

General consumption of gas in the country in March dropped by 12.5% — up to 6.203 billion cubic meters, first of all due to reduction in demand in power twice — up to 529 million cubic meters and also for 9% in housing sector — 3.497 billion cubic meters.

Statistics shows that demand for Russian gas grows in the world. It is possible to assume that this trend will proceed as supply of LNG from Qatar will not be able to return to pre-war indicators in the nearest future.