The European Union’s unfounded optimism about soon abandoning Russian gas is gradually giving way to well-founded doubts. This is being openly discussed and reported by European media.

Europe is at risk of entering the upcoming heating season with the lowest gas reserves in the last 15 years, which could lead to higher prices for businesses and households this winter. This was reported by the Financial Times in late June, citing a forecast by Wood Mackenzie.

According to forecasts of Wood Mackenzie, by the end of a season of replenishment of reserves of gas which lasts from April to October the storages of the EU will be filled only for 76% — it is the minimum indicator since 2011. One of the main reasons for deficiency for raw materials is the conflict between the USA and Iran which interrupted supply of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz and also reduction of production in Qatar and the UAE. The situation is further complicated by the EU’s planned complete ban on Russian LNG imports from January 1, which currently accounts for 14% of European supplies.

Experts of Wood Mackenzie expect that gas prices will grow with approach of frosts, especially at cold weather at the beginning of 2027. Besides, the Financial Times gives opinion of the Head of the Spanish port of Bilbao Iwan Jiménez that the EU should postpone introduction of the ban for import of LNG from Russia as there is a risk for reliability of deliveries and hit in too strong dependence on the American LNG. For the first five months of the year the share of the Russian LNG in deliveries to the port of Bilbao grew to 59%, and the share of American decreased to 40 percent. Jiménez noted that LNG from Russia is usually cheaper than from the USA. In May, LNG shipments to Spain from the United States decreased by 50%, to 4.8 TWh (454.5 million cubic meters m), and from Russia increased by 59%, to 8.7 TWh (824 million cubic meters).

Concerns are expressed by European politicians. In particular, German Minister of Economic Affairs and Energy Katerina Reiche has announced that natural gas purchases for the national strategic reserve will begin in early 2027, amounting to 24 TWh (2.3 billion cubic meters) or 9.6% of Germany’s total storage capacity. The necessary legislation is expected to be passed by the end of the year.

The German Gas Storage Operators Association (GGSOA) welcomed the German government’s decision to establish a strategic gas reserve, but recommended that it be 78 TWh (7.38 billion cubic meters) instead of the 24 TWh specified by the Ministry of Economic Affairs. According to the GGSOA, this volume could help mitigate significant supply disruptions and peak consumption during the winter season.

The concern of the German politicians is quite reasonable. The economy of Germany is not in the best form. For the first half of 2026 12.7 thousand companies in Germany went bankrupt, reported Der Spiegel edition with reference to bureau of credit histories Creditreform. In comparison with last year the number of bankruptcies grew by 7.8% and it was record from 2013. According to Creditreform, losses because of corporate bankruptcies in the first half of the year were EUR 28.5 billion, 165 thousand jobs were the threat.

«The increase in bankruptcies is a sign of the deep structural crisis in our companies, which has been escalated by the conflict in the Middle East,» said Patrick-Ludwig Hanch, Head of Economic Research at Creditreform. According to Hanch, the wave of bankruptcies is not yet at its peak. «The situation will only stabilize again when the economy starts growing again. Under the current circumstances, this will not happen before 2027,» the expert said.

It is noteworthy that gas suppliers have criticized European energy policy. Filip Mshelbila, Secretary-General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), noted that while environmental protection is a priority, the EU cannot impose global regulations and penalize exporters for methane emissions, as creating a «climate bubble» is an unrealistic idea. According to the GECF leader, the introduction of new regulations should be postponed, and realistic emission assessment criteria should be established.

At the end of June the USA and Qatar warned the EU about a possible stop of supply of gas to the European market because of entry into force since 2027 of new rules on regulation of the emissions of methane demanding including from foreign suppliers of products again, first of all, natural gas, in the EU to reduce emissions of methane and to verify this decrease. The United States Secretaries of Energy, Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria sent a letter to Brussels, in which noted lack of a real opportunity to correspond to new rules therefore the companies will not sign contracts, obviously understanding that they will violate the law of the EU. It in turn will affect the volume of the offer of gas in the European market and the price of it. The United States Secretary of Energy Chris Wright noted: «Without considerable reform of this law, it will cause serious pain to Europe, and it is not necessary. This is not a conflict escalation. Our energy will continue to flow. It will just go somewhere else.»

German authorities have joined the critics of the EU’s new methane emission regulation law, noting that it could negatively impact the supply of LNG and petroleum products to Europe. The country’s Minister of Energy, Katerina Reiche, called for at least postponing or suspending the implementation of the new regulation.

At the same time strong heat in Europe led to reduction of power production by nuclear power plants. Water is necessary for them for cooling of reactors, and temperature increase of water in the rivers disturbs it. Power production by the wind power plants (WPP) in Europe also remains at a low level. According to WindEurope service, on June 29, 2026 only 10.3% of demand in Europe fell to the share of the energy received on WPP. Because of a heat the power generation by the European hydroelectric power stations in June dropped by 13% in comparison with an indicator of last year.

On this background the Norwegian company Equinor refused the purpose of increase in the portfolio of renewable generation up to 10–12 GW by 2030 and lowered plans for investments into low-carbon power and power generation by 50%. Till 2030 Equinor plans capital expenditure from 11 to 13 billion dollars a year. From this sum of 60% 30% – to foreign projects on exploration and production of hydrocarbons and 10% – on power industry will be directed to oil and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf.

In turn China steadily increases purchases of Russian gas. According to data of the Head Customs Office of the People’s Republic of China in January – May import of the Russian LNG grew by 27.96%, up to 2.737 million tons. At the same time gas production in China in May decreased by 2.2% of yoy and made 21.7 billion cubic meters. This is the first decrease in gas production in China on monthly results year on year since March, 2018.

At the same time Russia increases gas production. According to Rosstat, gas production in Russia increased by 4.3% in the first five months of the year, reaching 302 billion cubic meters. In addition, the production of liquefied natural gas in May 2026 amounted to 3.2 million tons, which is 13.7% more than a year earlier, according to Rosstat. And in five months of 2026 the production reached 15.7 million tons that is 10.4% more than last year’s level.

According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, there are currently 930 GW of gas-fired power generation projects being implemented worldwide. Of these, more than 500 GW are expected to be operational by 2030, adding to the nearly 2,000 GW of existing capacity.

Global electricity production increased by 2.8% to the record 31,740 TWh in 2025. According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, the output of gas-fired power plants increased from 6,880 TWh in 2024 to 6,900 TWh in 2025.
During the period from 2005 to 2025 the largest pure gain of power production on gas was recorded in the USA (+1046 TWh), China (+306 TWh), Iran (+229 TWh), Saudi Arabia (+192 TWh), Egypt (+119 TWh), South Korea (+111 TWh) and Russia (+93 TWh). Against the background of this steady growth the USA, Russia, Iran, Japan and China are among the world’s largest producers of power using gas.

Fast expansion of the data-processing centers (DPC) became the main driving force of increase in demand for the electric power. According to the International Power Agency, world consumption of electricity by DPCs reached in 2025 485 billion kWh (+17% year-on-year). Analysts of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum expect that gas generation will play an important role in satisfaction of the growing demand for the electric power of DPCs. In the United States, the world’s largest data center market, natural gas is projected to provide 60% of the additional capacity needed to expand data centers by the end of this decade.

We can expect that more and more European politicians will change their attitude towards Russian gas supplies. Otherwise, they will simply lose power. It is no secret that the Alternative for Germany party, whose leaders advocate the restoration of Russian energy purchases, is steadily gaining popularity in Germany. According to May polls the rating of the Alternative for Germany reached record 29% while ruling Christian democrats fell to the lowest mark for the last four years – 22%.