Natural gas with which record stocks Russia is rich, will provide global transition to climate economy. In the next decades our natural gas will help both to fulfill own climatic obligations and to relieve the developing countries of Asia of coal dependence, catastrophic for ecology.

However right now, refusing the Russian gas, Europe undermines world efforts on fight against emissions — and at the same time undermines own sustainable development.
Renewables, on which argue on full transition very much today, actually will hardly allow us to refuse traditional fossil fuels. To begin with that the mankind for all the history still never just seeing fuel did not refuse — the same firewood still much where are used, including in the most developed regions.

People will still burn down firewood, coal and oil — a question is only in what proportions. There will not be absolute zero emissions — but it is not necessary, we talk about achievement of zero balance only which has to be provided with reduction of a share of «dirty» power sources and growth of a share of «pure».

The size of a share of renewable sources in the future directly depends on how soon there will be rather capacious and effective accumulators for accumulation of huge volumes of the «green» energy received from solar panels and wind-driven generators. After all RES — they do not develop energy of 100% of time.

That very wind is not available all the time. Therefore, at the moments when it is, the developed energy needs to be reserved somewhere. However technologies which would allow doing it in sufficient volumes for a victory of RES over carbon fuel, meanwhile do not exist.

Gas is the most environmentally friendly of all fossil fuels. On the one hand, it can be used together with generation from RES: at the moments, when there is no wind or the sun, the power supply system can feed on gas. Of course, such a situation is applicable not everywhere — after all it is a question of the miscalculation of profitability: when gas power that works, stands idle, its final price turns out higher than if it was loaded 100% of time.

On the other hand, replacing with gas the «dirtiest» fuel — coal — the countries can significantly reduce the carbon trace already today. And potential at this direction is enormous — the largest developing planet economies, including China and India, more parts lean on coal. If we speak about a need to reduce considerably emissions right now (namely all and go on about it), coal replacement with gas can give the most notable global effect right now. Already then, decades later, this effect can be consolidated at the expense of RES — if, of course, they will manage to develop enough by this time.

Natural gas will allow Russia to constrain the climatic obligations

Russia has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas — it is cheaper and more available to consumers than anywhere on the planet. It is important to understand that not least this achievement of our power — gas price at us regulates the state but not some exchange traders as in the international market and the markets of other countries. As a result fuel and energy balance of our state is the most environmentally friendly in the world. Gas accounts for about 50% of it, while the most “dirty” fossil energy source — coal — occupies only 15%. For comparison, on the world in general a share of coal exceeds 30%, in the USA — more than 40%, in China — 70%.

Today, more than 70% of all regions of the country have been fully gasified, where gasification is technically possible in principle. Here it is necessary to tell about regional specifics: we have in the remote regions very low population density, and at the low prices of gas, to many settlements East Siberia and the Far East simply unprofitably to pull it.

However in 2019 we started the Force of Siberia gas pipeline, with power under 40 billion cubic meters in a year — that is, through these regions the pipe, on which end the large buyer, China laid down. Gasification of adjacent regions became as a result possible — there gas now is actively replaced with coal. In the near future we will stretch to China also «Force of Siberia — 2″ with power up to 50 billion cubic meters in a year which will in addition raise possibilities of gasification of the country.

By 2030 Gazprom plans to bring the level of gasification of the country to 100%. As a result our economy will become even more eco-friendly — the gas share in fuel and energy balance will significantly increase. This one of the basic directions of government strategy for execution of climatic obligations within the Parisian agreement — full gasification will allow us to reach 30% of reduction of emissions by 2030, and will create base for the further movement to carbon neutrality to 2060.

Gas stocks of Russia will become a key source of «gardening» of the developing Pacific Rim economies

Today China is the world leader in coal consumption. Its industrial and technological jump well-known for the whole world which began in the middle of the XX century entirely relied on energy from coal burning. Now the Celestial Empire consumes this fuel as much as the rest of the world combined. As a result, an environmental disaster has broken out in major cities of China — it’s hard to breathe from burning and smog, people wear respirators.

Therefore Chinese seek to increase a gas share in the energy balance — along with development of renewable sources and nuclear power. Russia will serve as a source of gas for China, large enough to replace the current colossal consumption of coal. We can also provide transition to gas of one more large consumer of coal India which is convinced of need of such power reform and aspires to it.
The competitor here is the United States, which has its own extensive reserves. Until the 2010s, their production declined, but then the so-called shale revolution began — new production methods made them one of the largest exporters of natural gas. However we are geographically closer, we have a gas main, and Americans carry the liquefied natural gas in tankers across the ocean — after all it influences the price, especially considering that their deliveries depend on weather conditions at the sea.

Why is there a gas crisis in Europe?

When in 2020 COVID-19 pandemic began the world economy appeared in the largest crisis. Somehow to rescue the situation of the government of the countries increased emission of currencies — trillions of dollars, euro and yens were issued. It led to the prompt growth of global inflation — staple prices, including, on gas began to grow sharply.

In the fall of 2021 increase in prices for gas became explosive. Exchange traders for some reason considered that the European gas storages are insufficiently filled — if the winter is cold, the stocks will not be enough. Here it is necessary to explain — Europe buys gas constantly, but spends mainly in winter, in a heating season. In summer when consumption of gas is significantly lower, it stocks up.

Against the background of trader concerns, the price of gas for the first time in history exceeded $ 1 thousand per cubic meter. Thus the winter was rather warm, and gas was enough; however the prices of it all the same continued to be in a fever. They then fell, then grew — sometimes by $ 500 a day, which did not happen before — at some moments they finished off up to $ 2 thousand. It is obvious that it is result of game of traders — well fuel price cannot jump so, considering that over the last 5 years it averaged $300-400.

From the beginning of special operation of Armed forces of the Russian Federation in the territory of Ukraine Europe declared that refuses Russian hydrocarbons and will look for other power sources. In particular, began to try buying natural gas from the USA — but it simply is not enough. On the one hand, for this resource there is a traditional competition between Europe and East Asia. China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan — all these world leaders in consumption of natural gas, and Europe will be content with the remains.

At the very beginning of this year, the outbreak of covid and lockdowns in China greatly reduced Asian consumption of liquefied gas from the United States, and the Americans redirected their supplies to Europe (which did not particularly calm European gas prices, by the way). Now the Chinese plants work again, and Europeans returned on the second plan.

Further, Europeans did not refuse to receive the Russian gas which is delivered on «Nord Stream — 1″. However from the beginning of the special operation the Siemens Company stopped service of turbines, they began to fail, and deliveries fell. Then Ukraine declared that it will not be able to fulfill fully the obligations for transit of the Russian gas to Europe.

At last, Poland across which territory passes the Yamal — Europe gas pipeline, declared that freezes a share of Gazprom in it — about 48%. That is, Poles simply nationalized a part of the gas pipeline in the territory then Gazprom, a logical image, stopped deliveries on it. As a result, in the summer when in Europe gas consumption is minimal, it was already more expensive than $2 thousand for cubic meter there that looks absolute madness.

Europe pulls down the climatic plans and plunges the population into social and economic crisis

In the agenda at the European management the former purposes — the carbon-free future remain. However in practice scarce gas needs to be replaced with something — and the European countries refusing coal to it come back again. Also consumption of fuel oil, the same firewood grows. All these not in the best way affect volumes of the European emissions — right now they grow though according to climatic plans and obligations, would have to decrease. In January-March 2022 they were already 6% more than for the same period of the previous year. And on a result of the second quarter gas crisis seriously became aggravated in comparison with the beginning of year, and emissions for certain will grow even more strongly.

The traders trading gas above $2 thousand receive excellent bonuses, shareholders of the companies in which they work, are happy. The European consumers groan, after all because of shortage of gas of the price grow on everything — from electricity to food. And the European politicians feed them with statements that society has to rally and somehow endure this crisis.

Formulas that it is necessary to reduce consumption sound — in particular to refuse conditioners in summer, and to heat in winter so that in rooms temperature did not exceed 18 degrees. The most vulnerable and needy promise to enter grants, plan to open public warm places where who will not have enough money will be able to come to get warm in the winter to pay for heating.

In the fall unknown blew up three strings of Northern streams. Only one string is in working state, with power about 28 billion cubic meters of gas in a year. To reduce gas prices, it would be possible to bring it into operation. Finally, what prevents us from moderating the appetites of capitalists who have been inflating gas prices — simply, to introduce at least some restrictions on the stock exchange in order to calm prices? It is also possible to negotiate with Gazprom to increase the share of oil-linked contracts for which gas is significantly cheaper than on the stock exchange.

These are real ways to get back on the rails of sustainable development — but for some reason, all this remains out of the brackets. It is not very clear where the Europeans are moving at all now, where they want to come, because they have all the opportunities to get out of the current crisis. What will happen next is not clear. It remains only to wait for winter.