The media and the expert community are discussing the possible losses of Gazprom from the closure of the European market, which could amount to $40 billion a year.

To compensate them, the State Duma proposed to expand domestic gas consumption and change the pricing methodology. Parliamentarians suggest to make the last one more exchange and to sell fuel to large consumers under long-term contracts with a condition «take or pay». Operability of part of export gas pipelines is broken, and some are inaccessible because of sanctions opposition. About 100 billion cubic meters of fuel were «locked» in the territory of Russia.

At preservation of the current situation the volume of export pipeline deliveries to foreign countries (in the western direction) following the results of 2023 will hardly exceed 60 billion cubic meters but if to consider such a large buyer as Turkey. If to estimate prospects only of the European Union, it does not import and even billion cubic meters of pipeline gas from Russia. By the way, problems are not only on our party, but also on the party of EC — consumption last year was reduced there by 55-60 billion cubic meters. Demand can drop further this year. That is the volume of the European market is reduced, it would be reflected in the Russian export even if there would be no problems with gas transmission capacities. On this background it would be strange to expect profit growth of the main gas exporter. Unless the European market brings a surprise that is sad for itself but pleasant for all events, you believe in the quality of the prices of the March or August 2022 sample.

Gazprom realizes the most part of raw materials in the domestic market. So, in 2021 from 516.1 billion cubic meters of cumulative demand from the Russian consumers the company provided 247.2 billion cubic meters. According to preliminary results of 2022, the company extracted 412.6 billion cubic meters to foreign countries put 100.9 billion cubic meters of gas and to internal consumers from the gas transmission system — 243 billion cubic meters.

Cumulative production on all Russian producers, according to the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, was reduced last year approximately by 11.6%, to 673.8 billion cubic meters that is the worst result from 2016. But cumulative export thus fell to 184.4 billion cubic meters. In this indicator both the liquefied natural gas of Novatek and Gazprom deliveries to the neighboring countries which go at more modest prices than deliveries to the European Union.

It is worth explaining that the prices, at which Gazprom delivers fuel to the Russian consumers, are regulated by the state — depending on category and considering delivery distance. Now this indicator is regulated by orders of FAS of November 16, 2022. A separate document on prices is for the population, a separate is for other consumers. In fact, the raw materials in domestic market should not rise in price above a rate of inflation. But at the same time such a market never differed in special profitability, considering cost of production and expenses on transportation. Stability of the prices on it was provided with export.

Thus nobody compensates to Gazprom expenses on prospecting works, development of new fields, gasification and other. And these projects have strategical importance for national economy and for the social sphere. Moreover, the state raises taxes.

Therefore sharp reduction of the prices on external platforms (as in 2020) or other crisis phenomena provoke discussion of the possible scheme of compensation of the dropping-out income in the domestic expert environment.

Traditionally the subject of change of the principle of pricing comes to life. It was discussed in the middle of the 2000s. Then welfare of the population grew, and the state intended to enter the principle of export parity — to tie the prices within the country to the prices on external platforms (minus transportation, minus export duty). But there was a crisis at a boundary of decades which forced to postpone these plans indefinitely.

Now it is not told about export parity any more. An opportunity to use exchange mechanisms for what it is offered to realize not less than 10% of the got raw materials through St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange is estimated. That is to use the scheme which was already fulfilled in the field of motor types of fuel. However, as it has to be combined with the principle «at first to sell gas, and then to get it» which professes Gazprom, is not clearly. Disputable is the opinion that surplus of the offer in domestic market which arose because of closing of part of the export directions, has to contain growth of quotations. In that case it is not clear, for the sake of what to enter the new mechanism of pricing if it does not bring more money. Is it simply for the sake of the most «more competitive» market models?

There are also questions of, whether the new model will hit industry, as well as producers of electric energy and heat.

About the third of volume of fuel which Gazprom delivers on domestic market falls to the share of the last. Whether competitiveness of domestic metallurgy, oil processing, producers of fertilizers will decrease?

It is important that they are not going to change pricing model for the population and the public sector. It is more than reasonable, considering that welfare of citizens after series of crises does not grow. And the blow to their wallets would be now extremely unreasonable.